Less than 2 years: Smart cities mature and contribute to the growing digital economy. Cloud-based AI and robotics develop. Deployment of deep learning accelerates.
2 - 5 years: Smart city opportunity crests $1.5 trillion. Mobile robotics revolutionize a variety of industries, the need arises for self-programed (learning) factories and automation increases dramatically. Neural networks allow systems to emulate human employees broadly.
5 - 10 years: Massive industry consolidation around intelligent services. Cities become data hubs. Intelligent machines can fully converse with humans. Human levels of performance achieved across a broad variety of systems. Systems fully adapt to the unique needs of the humans that interact with them.
10 years+: Quantum processors enter market moving systems well beyond human capabilities. Personal intelligent robots become mainstream particularly for elder care. Autonomous cars become dominant, causing a 90 percent reduction in accidents, collapse of related insurance revenues and approximate $1 billion savings in related costs nationally (I believe this number is understated significantly).
Preparing for the impact of automation
The paper recommends that organizations prioritize their preparedness by looking at each employee and assess the impact of automation on the related job. I’d also suggest ranking the jobs by exposure and letting the employee know once a plan to retrain them has been developed, so this retraining is timely.
Develop broad training and education programs to make sure the firm has the people it needs by the time it is ready to implement Sentient Tools broadly. Assess the changes against current business plans organizations and explore business models, changes in support structure, and organizations in line with these advancements. Update the strategic IT plan to assure IT is ready and anticipate necessary partnerships and ecosystem development opportunities connected to the change.
The paper and, particularly the GAO report, goes into far more detail calling out specific leading vendors and changes in broad skill categories that will occur. But overall we are talking about a massive change across the developed world which will likely leave, within a 10-year planning horizon, a huge number of people unemployed and a substantial number of companies non-viable unless a lot of planning and preparation is started.
Like every past change, I expect the majority of managers won’t see this coming until it is too late, I strongly suggest you not be one of that group this time. I also would suggest you may not want to live where huge numbers of the likely folks to be displaced currently live. I expect they will not be happy with this change at all and you not only don’t want to be part of that group, you don’t want to be in the epicenter when they get really angry. Just read up on the 1974 Borax Strike, but expand that to a national event. Trust me, you don’t want to be unprepared for what is coming so this outcome doesn’t hit your company or family.
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